?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 21 game
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 20 games
60%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 11 games
27%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 48 games
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 46 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 44 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 41 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 38 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 34 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
490 picks · 217 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 638 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 728 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
406 picks · 574 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 361 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 164 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 792 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
340 picks · 947 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 65%
Hero pool strength62% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:13
Shopify Rebellion 39%Team Falcons 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverArteezy
58% · 114 games51% · 35 games
ClinkzSkiter
Clinkz
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
54% · 191 game49% · 231 game
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
49% · 319 games49% · 178 games
MarsATF
Mars
Bane
BaneSkem
55% · 96 games43% · 159 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
40% · 117 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct46:27
Shopify Rebellion 39%Team Falcons 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:09:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArteezy
53% · 203 games46% · 184 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Death Prophet
Death ProphetYopaj
54% · 96 games57% · 35 games
SniperMalr1ne
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
51% · 208 games50% · 161 game
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Venomancer
VenomancerSkem
43% · 50 games48% · 117 games
WindrangerCr1t-
Windranger
46% · 60 games
BaneSneyking
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 69%
Accuracy by game1 of 2