DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 22 games
Lion
Save- · 22 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
Tinysignature
Save- · 21 game
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
gpK~ · 17 games
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 46 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 36 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 29 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
490 picks · 217 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 639 bans
Batrider
417 picks · 728 bans
Centaur Warrunner
404 picks · 574 bans
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 359 bans
Rubick
393 picks · 165 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 793 bans
Shadow Demon
340 picks · 943 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:20
BETBOOM TEAM 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNightfall
LifestealerPure~
Keeper of the LightgpK~
Faceless VoidTopson
BeastmasterMieRo
SlardarRAMZES666
HoodwinkSave-
MiranaWhitemon
ClockwerkTORONTOTOKYO
Techies9Class
Game 2prediction correct22:38
BETBOOM TEAM 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverNightfall
RazorTopson
PangoliergpK~
LifestealerPure~
VisageMieRo
Centaur WarrunnerRAMZES666
IoTORONTOTOKYO
Marci9Class
TinySave-
RubickWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2