DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Tinysignature
fy · 29 games
Lion
fy · 27 games
Techiessignature
天命 · 27 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 25 games
Zeussignature
Ori · 22 games
Lunaoften banned
lou · 21 game
Timbersawsignature
Faith_bian · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
fy · 19 games
Natus Vincere
Lion
Zayac · 15 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Malady · 10 games
Tinysignature
Zayac · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
490 picks · 217 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 639 bans
Batrider
417 picks · 728 bans
Centaur Warrunner
404 picks · 574 bans
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 359 bans
Rubick
393 picks · 165 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 793 bans
Shadow Demon
340 picks · 943 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:40
Azure Ray 62%Natus Vincere 38%
The model gave 62% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzlou
Faceless VoidYuragi
RazorOri
TimbersawSancity
BeastmasterFaith_bian
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Hoodwinkfy
TechiesZayac
Treant Protector天命
EnchantressMalady
Game 2prediction missed12:39
Azure Ray 62%Natus Vincere 38%
The model gave 62% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawOri
SniperSancity
Svenlou
ClinkzYuragi
DoomFaith_bian
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Lionfy
HoodwinkZayac
Techies天命
UndyingMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 73%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2