DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Heroicloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Heroic
Gyrocopter
KJ · 34 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 25 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 16 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 216 bans
Tiny
434 picks · 639 bans
Batrider
417 picks · 728 bans
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 571 bans
Gyrocopter
401 picks · 358 bans
Rubick
392 picks · 165 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 788 bans
Shadow Demon
337 picks · 941 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:7
Aurora Gaming 49%Heroic 51%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 32:06.
Game 2prediction correct25:18
Aurora Gaming 49%Heroic 51%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2