RES Regional Series: EU #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dandelionswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 32 games
Techies
rue · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 22 games
Lunaoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 20 games
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 216 bans
Tiny
434 picks · 636 bans
Batrider
417 picks · 728 bans
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 570 bans
Gyrocopter
401 picks · 358 bans
Rubick
392 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 786 bans
Shadow Demon
337 picks · 939 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:34
Yellow Submarine 70%Dandelions 30%
The model gave 70% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 39:47.
Game 2prediction missed15:28
Yellow Submarine 70%Dandelions 30%
The model gave 70% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Dandelions in 31:09.
Game 3prediction missed37:9
Yellow Submarine 70%Dandelions 30%
The model gave 70% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Dandelions in 36:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 70%
Series resultDandelions 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3