DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
Lion
Save- · 22 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 21 game
Tinysignature
Save- · 21 game
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
gpK~ · 17 games
Team Falcons
Marssignature
ATF · 48 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 45 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 44 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 41 game
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 38 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 34 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 215 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 636 bans
Batrider
416 picks · 731 bans
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 570 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 358 bans
Rubick
394 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 786 bans
Shadow Demon
337 picks · 937 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 64%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:23
BETBOOM TEAM 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 23:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaNightfall
GyrocopterSkiter
Dragon KnightgpK~
LeshracMalr1ne
KunkkaMieRo
SlardarATF
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
EnigmaSneyking
BaneSave-
IoCr1t-
Game 2prediction correct22:34
BETBOOM TEAM 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNightfall
BristlebackSkiter
LinagpK~
SlardarMalr1ne
TimbersawMieRo
ViperATF
BatriderSave-
HoodwinkCr1t-
AbaddonTORONTOTOKYO
BaneSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2