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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 15 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Malady · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 45 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 36 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 28 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
78%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
48%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 636 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 731 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 567 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 357 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 164 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 783 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
334 picks · 937 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:45
Natus Vincere 29%Tundra Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
52% · 187 games54% · 57 games
SniperPure~
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
45% · 166 games58% · 37 games
PudgeTopson
Pudge
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSancity
46% · 81 game52% · 284 games
Centaur WarrunnerRAMZES666
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderMalady
55% · 361 game51% · 425 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
50% · 240 games42% · 232 games
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct26:37
Natus Vincere 30%Tundra Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYuragi
59% · 89 games49% · 171 game
LifestealerPure~
Lifestealer
Zeus
ZeusSancity
45% · 100 games52% · 42 games
PudgeTopson
Pudge
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNefrit
45% · 126 games55% · 94 games
SlardarRAMZES666
Slardar
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMalady
50% · 221 game47% · 243 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesZayac
48% · 278 games51% · 264 games
Shadow Demon9Class
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2