DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Tinysignature
fy · 29 games
Lion
fy · 27 games
Techiessignature
天命 · 27 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 25 games
Lunaoften banned
lou · 21 game
Zeussignature
Ori · 21 game
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 19 games
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
Shopify Rebellion
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 215 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 636 bans
Batrider
414 picks · 731 bans
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 567 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
394 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 783 bans
Shadow Demon
334 picks · 937 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 35%
Hero pool strength52% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:32
Azure Ray 54%Shopify Rebellion 46%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 1:11:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusOri
LunaArteezy
Lifestealerlou
KunkkaYopaj
DoomFaith_bian
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Hoodwinkfy
VenomancerSkem
Disruptor天命
Game 2prediction missed16:30
Azure Ray 55%Shopify Rebellion 45%
The model gave 55% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 48:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidlou
LinaYopaj
TimbersawFaith_bian
WeaverArteezy
Death ProphetOri
MarsSabeRLight-
Shadow Demonfy
ClockwerkSkem
Batrider天命
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2