?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 32 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 24 games
42%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 24 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 23 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 26 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 20 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 636 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 731 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 568 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 356 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
392 picks · 163 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 778 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
332 picks · 934 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:15
Team Liquid 44%Xtreme Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
55% · 202 games46% · 187 games
RazorXm
Razor
Lifestealer
LifestealermiCKe
55% · 192 games42% · 161 game
HoodwinkXinQ
Hoodwink
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
54% · 153 games45% · 182 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
46% · 231 game49% · 337 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
55% · 249 games52% · 160 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct56:40
Team Liquid 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:13:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
46% · 143 games54% · 14 games
Drow RangerAme
Drow Ranger
Bristleback
Bristleback33
41% · 15 games57% · 163 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyNisha
48% · 158 games53% · 125 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Tusk
TuskBoxi
41% · 64 games57% · 3 games
Nyx AssassinXinQ
Nyx Assassin
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
45% · 53 games56% · 128 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2