DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
PSG Quest
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
Gyrocoptersignature
OmaR · 15 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 15 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 15 games
Tinysignature
No!ob · 15 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dukalis · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 215 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 636 bans
Batrider
416 picks · 731 bans
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 568 bans
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 356 bans
Rubick
392 picks · 163 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 778 bans
Shadow Demon
332 picks · 934 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:22
Aurora Gaming 46%PSG Quest 54%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 24:35.
Game 2prediction correct42:11
Aurora Gaming 46%PSG Quest 54%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 50:59.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 54%
Accuracy by game2 of 2