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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 15 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 9 games
78%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
75%

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
40%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 14 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 636 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 731 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 567 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 355 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
391 picks · 163 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 779 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 560 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:29
Natus Vincere 56%Shopify Rebellion 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYuragi
48% · 114 games58% · 183 games
Faceless VoidArteezy
Faceless Void
Zeus
ZeusSancity
41% · 66 games55% · 114 games
Keeper of the LightYopaj
Keeper of the Light
Lone Druid
Lone DruidNefrit
46% · 37 games49% · 78 games
SlardarSabeRLight-
Slardar
Tiny
TinyZayac
49% · 173 games51% · 180 games
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMalady
50% · 165 games
Game 2prediction correct39:8
Natus Vincere 54%Shopify Rebellion 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
46% · 99 games51% · 57 games
BristlebackArteezy
Bristleback
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSancity
51% · 41 game56% · 58 games
SniperYopaj
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
45% · 126 games53% · 84 games
SlardarSabeRLight-
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
55% · 78 games44% · 258 games
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMalady
51% · 113 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2