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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 48 games
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
66%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 43 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 41 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 34 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 45 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 36 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 28 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 26 games
81%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
50%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 22 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
485 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 636 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 731 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 566 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 354 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
391 picks · 163 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 778 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 559 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total70% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:15
Team Falcons 63%Tundra Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 57:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
56% · 141 game43% · 176 games
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
49% · 119 games44% · 64 games
BeastmasterRAMZES666
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarATF
62% · 44 games50% · 50 games
SniperTopson
Sniper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
49% · 78 games45% · 61 game
IoWhitemon
Io
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
50% · 41 game55% · 72 games
Bane9Class
Bane
Game 2prediction correct49:16
Team Falcons 62%Tundra Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
52% · 94 games51% · 209 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
51% · 73 games54% · 210 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierATF
47% · 251 game54% · 83 games
SlardarRAMZES666
Slardar
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
41% · 129 games50% · 113 games
Muerta9Class
Muerta
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
50% · 160 games50% · 92 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 70%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2