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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 34 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 25 games
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
41%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 16 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 15 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 15 games
40%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 21 game
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dukalis · 14 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
485 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 636 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
415 picks · 731 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 566 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 353 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
392 picks · 163 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 774 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 559 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:9
Heroic 41%PSG Quest 59%
The model gave 59% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorK1
51% · 130 games44% · 23 games
BristlebackTA2000
Bristleback
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
54% · 90 games47% · 131 game
Dragon KnightNo!ob
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarDavai
54% · 73 games47% · 186 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenKJ
61% · 72 games47% · 77 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
44% · 114 games51% · 62 games
IoDukalis
Io
Game 2prediction missed29:13
Heroic 42%PSG Quest 58%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverK1
57% · 106 games48% · 106 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Pudge
Pudge4nalog
50% · 40 games47% · 84 games
Dragon KnightMalik
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarDavai
56% · 78 games45% · 126 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Bane
BaneKJ
58% · 112 games52% · 133 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
44% · 158 games41% · 45 games
IoDukalis
Io
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 65%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2