DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 31 game
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 24 games
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 23 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 215 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 636 bans
Batrider
414 picks · 731 bans
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 566 bans
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 353 bans
Rubick
392 picks · 163 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 773 bans
Mars
333 picks · 558 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:41
Aurora Gaming 22%Team Liquid 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:20:32.
Game 2prediction correct26:3
Aurora Gaming 22%Team Liquid 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 78%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2