?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 19 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 14 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
64%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 43 games
79%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 36 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 28 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 26 games
81%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
50%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 21 game
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 636 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
415 picks · 733 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 567 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 352 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 164 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 770 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 557 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:34
Shopify Rebellion 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenArteezy
50% · 125 games54% · 30 games
BristlebackPure~
Bristleback
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYopaj
47% · 172 games58% · 37 games
SniperTopson
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
46% · 234 games51% · 187 games
KunkkaRAMZES666
Kunkka
Mirana
MiranaSkem
51% · 161 game49% · 258 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
50% · 180 games
Shadow Demon9Class
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct18:32
Shopify Rebellion 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterArteezy
51% · 101 game54% · 25 games
HuskarPure~
Huskar
Primal Beast
Primal BeastYopaj
55% · 138 games49% · 98 games
Nature's ProphetTopson
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaSabeRLight-
51% · 127 games53% · 57 games
SlardarRAMZES666
Slardar
Bane
BaneSkem
65% · 37 games33% · 68 games
Muerta9Class
Muerta
43% · 155 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2