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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 28 games
61%
Lion
Lion
fy · 27 games
56%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 26 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 25 games
56%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lou · 21 game
57%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
63%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 48 games
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 43 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 41 game
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 41 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 36 games
81%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 32 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 636 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
415 picks · 733 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 567 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 352 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 164 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 770 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 557 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total85% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:48
Azure Ray 28%Team Falcons 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 55:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebacklou
51% · 44 games55% · 142 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Sniper
SniperOri
48% · 55 games49% · 98 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterFaith_bian
56% · 45 games51% · 106 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Batrider
Batriderfy
51% · 389 games46% · 245 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Grimstroke
Grimstroke天命
50% · 203 games45% · 145 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct9:30
Azure Ray 29%Team Falcons 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
49% · 219 games47% · 281 game
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Puck
PuckOri
56% · 199 games40% · 82 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
52% · 250 games44% · 63 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Techies
Techiesfy
49% · 261 game52% · 324 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Elder Titan
Elder Titan天命
59% · 75 games51% · 254 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 85%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2