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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 24 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 17 games
76%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 15 games
73%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 14 games
86%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 48 games
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 40 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 40 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 39 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 35 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 34 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 30 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 637 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
420 picks · 738 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
401 picks · 566 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
398 picks · 165 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 346 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 771 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 564 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total68% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:35
Xtreme Gaming 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackAme
50% · 25 games42% · 89 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Viper
ViperXm
52% · 43 games34% · 63 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
54% · 116 games51% · 53 games
WindrangerNine
Windranger
Marci
MarciXinQ
56% · 50 games52% · 57 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Bane
BaneDy
53% · 72 games59% · 44 games
EnigmaSneyking
Enigma
Game 2prediction missed29:18
Xtreme Gaming 39%Team Falcons 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzAme
43% · 37 games42% · 130 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
48% · 198 games54% · 230 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Razor
RazorXm
43% · 137 games52% · 30 games
ViperATF
Viper
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
60% · 85 games52% · 77 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneDy
49% · 88 games60% · 78 games
EnigmaSneyking
Enigma
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 68%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2