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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 24 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 17 games
76%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 15 games
73%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 14 games
86%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 20 games
60%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 18 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 17 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
485 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 637 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 738 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 564 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
396 picks · 163 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 343 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 769 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 561 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total71% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
Xtreme Gaming 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 49:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracXm
57% · 101 game50% · 128 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAme
53% · 182 games46% · 83 games
WindrangerYatoro
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarXxs
49% · 65 games49% · 129 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Muerta
MuertaXinQ
45% · 60 games47% · 95 games
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Bane
BaneDy
55% · 78 games46% · 51 game
IoMira
Io
Game 2prediction correct33:17
Xtreme Gaming 65%Team Spirit 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerAme
52% · 129 games52% · 152 games
GyrocopterYatoro
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
52% · 114 games43% · 123 games
RazorCollapse
Razor
Slardar
SlardarXxs
49% · 59 games51% · 128 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
53% · 164 games45% · 58 games
IoMira
Io
Bane
BaneDy
58% · 81 game42% · 86 games
TuskMiposhka
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 71%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2