RES Regional Series: EU #2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Rest Farmersloss 1:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Night Pulseloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Night Pulse
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Corrupted · 6 games
Disruptoroften banned
JANTER · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
485 picks · 214 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 637 bans
Batrider
419 picks · 738 bans
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 562 bans
Rubick
396 picks · 163 bans
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 342 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 768 bans
Mars
338 picks · 561 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:16
Rest Farmers 47%Night Pulse 53%
The model gave 53% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 36:58.
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Rest Farmers 47%Night Pulse 53%
The model gave 53% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 26:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2