PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
Marssignature
Collapse · 20 games
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 18 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 18 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 16 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 214 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 636 bans
Batrider
416 picks · 735 bans
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 558 bans
Rubick
393 picks · 161 bans
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 339 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 756 bans
Mars
340 picks · 555 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:19
Aurora Gaming 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:11:06.
Game 2prediction correct14:22
Aurora Gaming 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:43.
Game 3prediction correct7:22
Aurora Gaming 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3