RES Regional Series: EU #2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Rest Farmersloss 1:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Monteloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Monte
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
Gyrocopter
Crystallize · 8 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 8 games
Rubick
QBFY · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 213 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 635 bans
Batrider
417 picks · 736 bans
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 559 bans
Rubick
395 picks · 160 bans
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 339 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 757 bans
Mars
340 picks · 554 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 26%
Hero pool strength58% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:36
Rest Farmers 65%Monte 35%
The model gave 65% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Monte in 47:51.
Game 2prediction correct45:21
Rest Farmers 65%Monte 35%
The model gave 65% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 38:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2