PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
Lion
Save- · 21 game
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 20 games
Tinysignature
Save- · 20 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
Enigmasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
Team Spirit
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
Marssignature
Collapse · 20 games
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 18 games
Lion
Mira · 17 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 214 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 630 bans
Batrider
416 picks · 735 bans
Rubick
397 picks · 159 bans
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 555 bans
Gyrocopter
386 picks · 334 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 747 bans
Mars
342 picks · 551 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 34%
Hero pool strength56% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total70% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:14
BETBOOM TEAM 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerNightfall
TidehunterCollapse
Keeper of the LightgpK~
Faceless VoidYatoro
MagnusMieRo
KunkkaLarl
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
BatriderMiposhka
LionSave-
Shadow DemonMira
Game 2prediction missed21:24
BETBOOM TEAM 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 54:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenNightfall
LifestealerYatoro
EnigmaMieRo
Storm SpiritLarl
Dragon KnightgpK~
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Shadow DemonTORONTOTOKYO
PhoenixMiposhka
TinySave-
LionMira
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2