?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 33 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 24 games
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
41%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 16 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 15 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 15 games
40%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 27 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 23 games
52%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 18 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
sayuw · 17 games
59%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 623 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 734 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 158 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 549 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
383 picks · 326 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 739 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 549 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:27
Heroic 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 23:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
50% · 263 games55% · 158 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Doom
DoomDavai
50% · 199 games49% · 43 games
ViperNoticed
Viper
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterK1
57% · 182 games52% · 204 games
WindrangerKiritych
Windranger
Venomancer
VenomancerKJ
47% · 37 games55% · 118 games
ChenFng
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
35% · 150 games48% · 308 games
TinyAntares
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct23:36
Heroic 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenK1
43% · 188 games52% · 92 games
AlchemistKiritych
Alchemist
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
59% · 130 games52% · 136 games
WindrangerSquad1x
Windranger
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDavai
46% · 59 games51% · 151 game
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
46% · 142 games47% · 204 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaKJ
53% · 237 games52% · 173 games
Crystal MaidenFng
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 53%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2