European Pro League Season 18 · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 3:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 3:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 38 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 23 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 21 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 28 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 19 games
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 17 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
sunset · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 213 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 622 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 738 bans
Rubick
392 picks · 158 bans
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 543 bans
Gyrocopter
380 picks · 322 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 734 bans
Mars
338 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
1w Team 66%SIBE Team 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMunkushi~
Batriderряф^^
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Lifestealerselfhate
BroodmotherCloud
EnchantressSOhY
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Rubicksunset
GyrocopterRESPECT
Game 2prediction missed17:30
1w Team 64%SIBE Team 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 34:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMunkushi~
Weaverselfhate
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
Pugnaряф^^
PangolierCloud
Rubicksunset
PhoenixRESPECT
Treant ProtectorSOhY
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
Game 3prediction correct39:5
1w Team 62%SIBE Team 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerMunkushi~
Bristlebackselfhate
Primal BeastCloud
Keeper of the Lightряф^^
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
ChenSOhY
Batriderswedenstrong
Rubicksunset
TuskRESPECT
Game 4prediction correct44:10
1w Team 62%SIBE Team 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 26:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanCloud
Faceless Voidselfhate
WindrangerMunkushi~
Dragon Knightряф^^
PangolierChira JUNIOR
ChenSOhY
Batriderswedenstrong
Tinysunset
TuskRESPECT
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 76%
Series result1w Team 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4