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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
46%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 20 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
74%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 17 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
81%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 28 games
68%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 26 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 25 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 25 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 16 games
69%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 213 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 619 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
405 picks · 736 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
392 picks · 157 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
389 picks · 542 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
378 picks · 319 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 727 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 546 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
BETBOOM TEAM 69%MOUZ 31%
The model gave 69% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
48% · 208 games45% · 178 games
Templar AssassinSupream^
Templar Assassin
Sniper
SnipergpK~
52% · 35 games43% · 42 games
Chaos KnightUlnit
Chaos Knight
Doom
DoomMieRo
53% · 189 games48% · 59 games
SlardarForce
Slardar
Mirana
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 120 games53% · 177 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Lion
LionSave-
53% · 181 game49% · 277 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct23:13
BETBOOM TEAM 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightgpK~
48% · 98 games52% · 164 games
SvenUlnit
Sven
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
48% · 126 games42% · 103 games
ZeusSupream^
Zeus
Doom
DoomMieRo
47% · 100 games56% · 148 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Pugna
PugnaSave-
53% · 85 games52% · 34 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 84 games55% · 44 games
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 83%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2