?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 33 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 23 games
61%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
41%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
KJ · 14 games
71%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
52%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 15 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 13 games
62%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
478 picks · 212 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 617 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 736 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 156 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
387 picks · 539 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 316 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 723 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 545 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total55% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:46
Heroic 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 51:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidK1
57% · 163 games53% · 186 games
GyrocopterPakazs
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
47% · 241 game53% · 163 games
Dark SeerSacred
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordDavai
40% · 78 games45% · 270 games
TechiesPanda
Techies
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
50% · 90 games
Bane
BaneKJ
57% · 47 games
Game 2prediction missed11:32
Heroic 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 26:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniper4nalog
45% · 26 games48% · 145 games
GyrocopterPakazs
Gyrocopter
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
53% · 67 games50% · 56 games
SlardarSacred
Slardar
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDavai
46% · 78 games58% · 54 games
BanePanda
Bane
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKJ
47% · 31 game
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
49% · 53 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 55%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2