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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 26 games
31%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 18 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 17 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 16 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 15 games
27%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sunset · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
54%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 35 games
46%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 33 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 24 games
58%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
70%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
479 picks · 212 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 616 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 738 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 155 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
387 picks · 538 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 315 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 722 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 545 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total79% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
SIBE Team 32%Natus Vincere Junior 68%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkaряф^^
45% · 229 games54% · 140 games
Medusagotthejuice
Medusa
Morphling
Morphlingselfhate
51% · 339 games49% · 209 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Tiny
Tinysunset
52% · 322 games53% · 292 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Disruptor
DisruptorSOhY
50% · 188 games49% · 256 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
47% · 181 game
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction missed48:43
SIBE Team 35%Natus Vincere Junior 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 48:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckряф^^
49% · 177 games50% · 22 games
Meepopma
Meepo
Riki
Rikiselfhate
little data54% · 111 games
Windrangergotthejuice
Windranger
Rubick
Rubicksunset
46% · 378 games47% · 243 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSOhY
55% · 78 games58% · 105 games
ClockwerkRiddys
Clockwerk
44% · 152 games
LionDaze
Lion
Game 3prediction missed42:25
SIBE Team 31%Natus Vincere Junior 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackselfhate
53% · 22 games56% · 214 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Zeus
Zeusряф^^
38% · 73 games50% · 11 games
HuskarNiku
Huskar
Rubick
Rubicksunset
50% · 277 games51% · 31 game
Pudgegotthejuice
Pudge
Disruptor
DisruptorSOhY
52% · 78 games52% · 45 games
IoDaze
Io
49% · 149 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 79%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3