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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 32 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 26 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 22 games
68%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 21 game
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 24 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
74%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 16 games
75%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 15 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
479 picks · 212 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 616 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 738 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 155 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
387 picks · 537 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 315 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 721 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 544 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:25
Team Liquid 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
45% · 89 games68% · 27 games
BristlebackAme
Bristleback
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
43% · 74 games30% · 6 games
Shadow FiendXm
Shadow Fiend
Viper
Viper33
44% · 19 games52% · 199 games
Primal BeastXxs
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
47% · 135 games45% · 47 games
MarciXinQ
Marci
Io
IoBoxi
54% · 40 games57% · 78 games
BaneDy
Bane
Game 2prediction correct18:38
Team Liquid 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
47% · 176 games47% · 26 games
Drow RangerAme
Drow Ranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
38% · 203 games46% · 79 games
ZeusXm
Zeus
Doom
Doom33
49% · 195 games45% · 336 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaiNSaNiA
48% · 147 games54% · 226 games
EnchantressDy
Enchantress
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterBoxi
58% · 28 games73% · 82 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 55%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2