European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rest Farmersloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Daze · 34 games
Lionsignature
Riddys · 33 games
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
Pugna
Riddys · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 212 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 616 bans
Batrider
401 picks · 738 bans
Centaur Warrunner
385 picks · 537 bans
Rubick
385 picks · 156 bans
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 315 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 721 bans
Mars
333 picks · 544 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 66%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total64% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:17
Rest Farmers 36%Natus Vincere Junior 64%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 51:16.
Game 2prediction correct20:4
Rest Farmers 36%Natus Vincere Junior 64%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 20:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 64%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2