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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 13 games
54%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
70%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 27 games
70%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 22 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 18 games
61%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 18 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
53%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 212 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 616 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 738 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
385 picks · 537 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
385 picks · 156 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 315 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 721 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 544 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:3
Shopify Rebellion 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightArteezy
52% · 72 games47% · 135 games
LunaKiritych
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierSumaiL
46% · 377 games51% · 149 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
53% · 100 games46% · 185 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskGH
48% · 166 games52% · 153 games
Shadow DemonFng
Shadow Demon
56% · 93 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct12:22
Shopify Rebellion 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArteezy
50% · 231 game54% · 185 games
Templar AssassinSquad1x
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorSumaiL
44% · 171 game45% · 146 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierSabeRLight-
52% · 418 games51% · 277 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderGH
56% · 343 games46% · 367 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
51% · 188 games
MiranaFng
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed30:17
Shopify Rebellion 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 48:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSumaiL
55% · 156 games42% · 83 games
ZeusSquad1x
Zeus
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArteezy
52% · 222 games52% · 177 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierSabeRLight-
51% · 369 games51% · 145 games
Dragon KnightKiritych
Dragon Knight
Tusk
TuskGH
46% · 121 game50% · 287 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
50% · 176 games
Shadow DemonFng
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 54%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3