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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 28 games
61%
Lion
Lion
fy · 27 games
56%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 26 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
61%
Luna
Luna
lou · 21 game
57%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
63%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 27 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 24 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 23 games
74%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 16 games
69%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
479 picks · 212 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 615 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
400 picks · 738 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
385 picks · 156 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
382 picks · 537 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 313 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 720 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 544 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:24
Azure Ray 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
45% · 148 games54% · 184 games
LunaUlnit
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
47% · 309 games49% · 141 game
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Keeper of the Light
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritOri
49% · 202 games47% · 193 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
52% · 205 games55% · 136 games
Pugnabengan
Pugna
Venomancer
Venomancer天命
52% · 49 games52% · 259 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed10:21
Azure Ray 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidlou
52% · 179 games41% · 152 games
Templar AssassinSupream^
Templar Assassin
Zeus
ZeusOri
48% · 73 games44% · 10 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaFaith_bian
61% · 77 games46% · 254 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
Clockwerkfy
59% · 132 games38% · 4 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden天命
50% · 181 game51% · 222 games
Shadow DemonNARMAN
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 77%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2