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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 34 games
44%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 32 games
63%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 23 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
32%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 14 games
43%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 13 games
77%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 608 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 739 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
383 picks · 155 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 535 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
366 picks · 311 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 713 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 543 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:10
Natus Vincere Junior 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
50% · 275 games46% · 280 games
MorphlingLukas
Morphling
Doom
Doompma
51% · 269 games42% · 88 games
Linanicky`cool
Lina
Razor
RazorNiku
52% · 186 games50% · 272 games
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDaze
51% · 254 games48% · 321 game
Rubickqueezy
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRiddys
57% · 217 games52% · 240 games
Shadow Demonaik
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct28:12
Natus Vincere Junior 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
52% · 143 games48% · 228 games
LunaLukas
Luna
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
56% · 155 games44% · 199 games
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
53% · 207 games44% · 241 game
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickDaze
51% · 334 games56% · 194 games
Gyrocopterqueezy
Gyrocopter
Lion
LionRiddys
48% · 192 games49% · 169 games
Disruptoraik
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 53%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2