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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 24 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
74%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 16 games
75%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 14 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 13 games
62%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
52%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 15 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 13 games
62%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 607 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 739 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 155 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 532 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
365 picks · 310 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 708 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
330 picks · 543 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Xtreme Gaming 70%BOOM Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAme
56% · 145 games51% · 42 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Sniper
SniperXm
52% · 35 games50% · 143 games
TinySacred
Tiny
Slardar
SlardarXxs
51% · 43 games45% · 100 games
TechiesPanda
Techies
Marci
MarciXinQ
52% · 18 games
Bane
BaneDy
48% · 44 games
Game 2prediction correct34:20
Xtreme Gaming 71%BOOM Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
54% · 40 games49% · 133 games
LunaPakazs
Luna
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerXm
53% · 68 games45% · 119 games
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
57% · 162 games46% · 181 game
EnchantressPanda
Enchantress
Marci
MarciXinQ
52% · 38 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
51% · 125 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 84%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2