European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rest Farmerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
Phoenix
Panto · 6 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 210 bans
Tiny
431 picks · 600 bans
Batrider
392 picks · 738 bans
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 535 bans
Rubick
380 picks · 154 bans
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 302 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 701 bans
Mars
332 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:25
One Move 40%Rest Farmers 60%
The model gave 60% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 37:45.
Game 2prediction correct35:34
One Move 40%Rest Farmers 60%
The model gave 60% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 45:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 60%
Series resultRest Farmers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2