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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8 Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 14 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
58%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Techies
Techies
aik · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 23 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 18 games
39%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
47%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Mary_y · 14 games
57%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 597 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 738 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
380 picks · 533 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
378 picks · 154 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 302 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 695 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
330 picks · 540 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:12
Nemiga Gaming 70%B8 Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
50% · 273 games49% · 216 games
Lunarincyq
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
53% · 175 games47% · 188 games
Templar AssassinDendi
Templar Assassin
Zeus
Zeusnicky`cool
52% · 138 games54% · 288 games
Centaur Warrunneregxrdemxn
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
43% · 376 games55% · 322 games
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
Shadow Demon
Batrider
Batrideraik
50% · 383 games47% · 331 game
Crystal MaidenMary_y
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed39:35
Nemiga Gaming 70%B8 Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 58:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenLukas
51% · 175 games47% · 151 game
Lifestealerrincyq
Lifestealer
Zeus
Zeusnicky`cool
46% · 62 games51% · 37 games
Lycanegxrdemxn
Lycan
Mars
MarsMikSa`
50% · 198 games47% · 245 games
KunkkaDendi
Kunkka
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
48% · 210 games54% · 255 games
GyrocopterCTOMAHEH1
Gyrocopter
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenaik
54% · 218 games53% · 175 games
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed26:60
Nemiga Gaming 69%B8 Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 53:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerLukas
46% · 141 game48% · 123 games
Lifestealerrincyq
Lifestealer
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
50% · 189 games49% · 267 games
Doomegxrdemxn
Doom
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMikSa`
47% · 63 games50% · 40 games
DazzleDendi
Dazzle
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenaik
57% · 216 games54% · 168 games
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
44% · 220 games55% · 231 game
GyrocopterCTOMAHEH1
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 82%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3