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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 34 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
48%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 22 games
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
30%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 7 games
14%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Panto · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
475 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 595 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 742 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 153 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
378 picks · 533 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 301 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 693 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 539 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength62% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:28
1w Team 66%One Move 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 59:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
47% · 124 games54% · 207 games
Lunanesfeer
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
45% · 192 games47% · 44 games
Sniperxn丶e
Sniper
Razor
RazorChira JUNIOR
47% · 113 games54% · 176 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRESPECT
51% · 176 games52% · 237 games
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Bane
Baneswedenstrong
50% · 59 games
Game 2prediction missed45:36
1w Team 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by One Move in 1:21:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMunkushi~
53% · 110 games48% · 187 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
47% · 89 games44% · 58 games
Muertanesfeer
Muerta
Mars
MarsCloud
59% · 113 games49% · 77 games
IoRein
Io
Marci
MarciRESPECT
58% · 28 games48% · 172 games
WindrangerSSS
Windranger
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
49% · 154 games
Game 3prediction correct43:11
1w Team 66%One Move 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMunkushi~
51% · 177 games51% · 325 games
Pangolierxn丶e
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaCloud
61% · 91 game44% · 203 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
42% · 176 games49% · 227 games
DoomSSS
Doom
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
52% · 202 games46% · 85 games
BaneRein
Bane
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRESPECT
57% · 194 games
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 75%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3