European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monteloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 23 games
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
Chenoften banned
Mary_y · 14 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
Monte
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 8 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 210 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 592 bans
Batrider
392 picks · 742 bans
Centaur Warrunner
378 picks · 533 bans
Rubick
378 picks · 153 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 691 bans
Gyrocopter
347 picks · 301 bans
Mars
333 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:40
B8 Esports 61%Monte 39%
The model gave 61% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Monte in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusarincyq
MorphlingCrystallize
Dragon Knightegxrdemxn
ZeusMoonlight
MagnusDendi
DoomInfernal
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
ClockwerkEcNart
Crystal MaidenMary_y
Dark WillowQBFY
Game 2prediction correct29:10
B8 Esports 61%Monte 39%
The model gave 61% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingrincyq
LinaMoonlight
Dragon KnightDendi
MorphlingCrystallize
Enigmaegxrdemxn
DoomInfernal
GyrocopterCTOMAHEH1
ClockwerkEcNart
Shadow DemonMary_y
Dark WillowQBFY
Game 3prediction correct38:30
B8 Esports 57%Monte 43%
The model gave 57% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 1:02:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingrincyq
Phantom LancerCrystallize
Dragon KnightDendi
Primal BeastMoonlight
Doomegxrdemxn
KunkkaInfernal
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
GyrocopterEcNart
Crystal MaidenMary_y
RubickQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 68%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3