BLAST Slam VII · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 30 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 30 games
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
Primal Beast
Xxs · 27 games
Tiny
NothingToSay · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Tundra Esports
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 36 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 30 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 30 games
Doomsignature
33 · 28 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
555 picks · 343 bans
Phoenix
475 picks · 565 bans
Rubick
447 picks · 235 bans
Tiny
428 picks · 356 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 513 bans
Puck
321 picks · 851 bans
Beastmaster
315 picks · 796 bans
Jakiro
310 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
Xtreme Gaming 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetAme
Beastmaster33
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
DoomPure~
TidehunterXxs
Ember Spiritbzm
Rubickfy
LichWhitemon
BanexNova
Keeper of the LightAri
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1