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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Techies
Techies
aik · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
472 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
428 picks · 590 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
396 picks · 741 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 535 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 153 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 691 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
343 picks · 300 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 540 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:47
ASAKURA 27%Nemiga Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:02:32.
Game 2prediction correct28:7
ASAKURA 27%Nemiga Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 73%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2