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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 33 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
63%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 22 games
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 23 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 17 games
41%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
47%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
64%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 209 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 587 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 744 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
384 picks · 534 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 153 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 687 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
341 picks · 298 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 547 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 35%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
1w Team 66%B8 Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
51% · 137 games53% · 232 games
Lunarincyq
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
48% · 184 games54% · 22 games
DazzleDendi
Dazzle
Viper
ViperChira JUNIOR
42% · 28 games50% · 213 games
Dragon Knightegxrdemxn
Dragon Knight
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
49% · 189 games52% · 219 games
GyrocopterMary_y
Gyrocopter
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
50% · 225 games50% · 77 games
BaneCTOMAHEH1
Bane
Game 2prediction correct24:6
1w Team 67%B8 Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMunkushi~
42% · 114 games47% · 54 games
Meeporincyq
Meepo
Doom
DoomCloud
52% · 177 games54% · 48 games
DazzleDendi
Dazzle
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
53% · 129 games48% · 209 games
Dragon Knightegxrdemxn
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
46% · 176 games52% · 110 games
ChenMary_y
Chen
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
53% · 161 game52% · 336 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2