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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
aik · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Techies
Techies
aik · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 10 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 33 games
42%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
66%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
77%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
32%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 19 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
470 picks · 208 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 586 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
396 picks · 743 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
384 picks · 534 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 153 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 682 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
339 picks · 298 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 544 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:14
Nemiga Gaming 40%Natus Vincere Junior 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLukas
49% · 188 games53% · 128 games
Medusagotthejuice
Medusa
Lina
Linanicky`cool
44% · 92 games51% · 210 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
52% · 186 games47% · 189 games
Windrangerpma
Windranger
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
48% · 271 game52% · 319 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenaik
51% · 279 games53% · 170 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed23:14
Nemiga Gaming 40%Natus Vincere Junior 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 24:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLukas
47% · 175 games47% · 142 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Windranger
Windrangernicky`cool
46% · 108 games45% · 195 games
KunkkaNiku
Kunkka
Visage
VisageMikSa`
42% · 14 games60% · 89 games
ChenRiddys
Chen
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
52% · 192 games44% · 66 games
Slardarpma
Slardar
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenaik
52% · 211 games58% · 208 games
GyrocopterDaze
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 64%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2