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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8 Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 25 games
28%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 16 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 14 games
21%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 12 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
ряф^^ · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
55%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 23 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
43%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
64%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
470 picks · 208 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 585 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 744 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
384 picks · 534 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
383 picks · 154 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 683 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 298 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 547 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 32%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:16
SIBE Team 53%B8 Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunaselfhate
42% · 153 games52% · 37 games
Chaos Knightrincyq
Chaos Knight
Kunkka
Kunkkaряф^^
55% · 106 games51% · 131 game
MagnusDendi
Magnus
Tiny
Tinysunset
53% · 189 games44% · 94 games
Dark Seeregxrdemxn
Dark Seer
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSOhY
51% · 109 games52% · 242 games
BatriderCTOMAHEH1
Batrider
51% · 53 games
IoMary_y
Io
Game 2prediction missed14:27
SIBE Team 54%B8 Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
50% · 173 games51% · 201 game
Lunarincyq
Luna
Puck
Puckряф^^
48% · 232 games52% · 124 games
LeshracDendi
Leshrac
Enchantress
EnchantressSOhY
48% · 207 games53% · 274 games
Centaur Warrunneregxrdemxn
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
Tinysunset
44% · 280 games51% · 222 games
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
Shadow Demon
57% · 71 game
IoMary_y
Io
Game 3prediction missed18:33
SIBE Team 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 35:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageselfhate
51% · 97 games49% · 272 games
Morphlingrincyq
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangolierряф^^
53% · 341 game48% · 125 games
Brewmasteregxrdemxn
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsunset
46% · 157 games48% · 214 games
MagnusDendi
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderSOhY
52% · 375 games54% · 198 games
Crystal MaidenMary_y
Crystal Maiden
49% · 161 game
GyrocopterCTOMAHEH1
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 57%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3