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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monteloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 10 games
30%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
22%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
14%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Crystallize · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 7 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
43%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 30 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
46%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 22 games
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
467 picks · 207 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 581 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 746 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
386 picks · 154 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
385 picks · 538 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 683 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
335 picks · 298 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 549 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 39%
Hero pool strength61% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:32
Monte 24%1w Team 76%
The model gave 76% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBatyuk
51% · 145 games48% · 206 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMoonlight
52% · 167 games51% · 318 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallize
43% · 108 games57% · 115 games
EnigmaCloud
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderQBFY
48% · 310 games50% · 37 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenEcNart
45% · 211 games53% · 265 games
Shadow DemonRESPECT
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed33:14
Monte 23%1w Team 77%
The model gave 77% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Monte in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallize
50% · 155 games51% · 33 games
Phantom LancerMunkushi~
Phantom Lancer
Zeus
ZeusMoonlight
40% · 72 games56% · 244 games
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
48% · 331 game54% · 257 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Clockwerk
ClockwerkEcNart
48% · 158 games50% · 182 games
Grimstrokeswedenstrong
Grimstroke
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
45% · 158 games57% · 158 games
GyrocopterRESPECT
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction correct21:41
Monte 24%1w Team 76%
The model gave 76% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 50:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallize
46% · 147 games49% · 291 game
MorphlingMunkushi~
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
55% · 144 games54% · 281 game
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
47% · 326 games52% · 125 games
EnigmaCloud
Enigma
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonEcNart
50% · 284 games49% · 133 games
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
50% · 143 games49% · 214 games
GyrocopterRESPECT
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 89%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3