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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
aik · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Techies
Techies
aik · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 10 games
50%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 23 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 21 game
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 20 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 15 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 208 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 582 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 750 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 153 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
388 picks · 539 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 684 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
336 picks · 550 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
333 picks · 297 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:36
Nemiga Gaming 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
51% · 146 games59% · 31 game
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Viper
Vipernicky`cool
48% · 52 games49% · 145 games
Templar AssassinSupream^
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
54% · 194 games47% · 245 games
DoomForce
Doom
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
46% · 170 games50% · 175 games
EnchantressNARMAN
Enchantress
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritaik
46% · 172 games55% · 138 games
Disruptorbengan
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed33:25
Nemiga Gaming 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
49% · 138 games53% · 123 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Zeus
Zeusnicky`cool
46% · 81 game47% · 147 games
Templar AssassinSupream^
Templar Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMikSa`
53% · 184 games42% · 36 games
AxeForce
Axe
Pugna
Pugnaqueezy
49% · 171 game52% · 289 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenaik
53% · 169 games51% · 148 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct23:40
Nemiga Gaming 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
Zeusnicky`cool
40% · 80 games49% · 147 games
SvenUlnit
Sven
Weaver
WeaverLukas
52% · 64 games51% · 150 games
RazorSupream^
Razor
Mars
MarsMikSa`
49% · 163 games57% · 40 games
OmniknightForce
Omniknight
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
44% · 173 games61% · 64 games
EarthshakerNARMAN
Earthshaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenaik
48% · 166 games51% · 245 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 65%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3