European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rest Farmerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 23 games
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
Chensignature
Mary_y · 13 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
464 picks · 208 bans
Tiny
421 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 749 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 155 bans
Centaur Warrunner
388 picks · 543 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 687 bans
Mars
339 picks · 550 bans
Gyrocopter
332 picks · 296 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:40
B8 Esports 28%Rest Farmers 72%
The model gave 72% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 45:23.
Game 2prediction correct6:35
B8 Esports 28%Rest Farmers 72%
The model gave 72% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 30:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 72%
Series resultRest Farmers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2