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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dEsire · 11 games
55%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 10 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dEsire · 8 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Bor@nija · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 6 games
33%

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugna
aik · 12 games
58%
Techies
Techies
aik · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
464 picks · 206 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 580 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 748 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 155 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
388 picks · 545 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 687 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 550 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
332 picks · 296 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total80% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:28
Level UP 32%Nemiga Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCoblackk
46% · 154 games60% · 185 games
MedusaLukas
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierBor@nija
49% · 368 games51% · 194 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickJeezy
45% · 392 games55% · 231 game
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Tusk
TuskStoic
45% · 131 game50% · 201 game
Pugnaaik
Pugna
54% · 234 games
Tinyqueezy
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct17:47
Level UP 32%Nemiga Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoCoblackk
47% · 20 games50% · 38 games
Anti-MageLukas
Anti-Mage
Puck
PuckBor@nija
52% · 151 game47% · 20 games
Snipernicky`cool
Sniper
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJeezy
53% · 111 games48% · 192 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Undying
UndyingStoic
44% · 82 games56% · 28 games
Baneaik
Bane
51% · 86 games
Gyrocopterqueezy
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 80%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2