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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 9 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SSS · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Panto · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
queezy · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 5 games
0%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 32 games
44%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 28 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
32%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 18 games
50%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
465 picks · 205 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 577 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
402 picks · 748 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
388 picks · 549 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 156 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 688 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 550 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
330 picks · 295 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:34
One Move 32%Natus Vincere Junior 68%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
45% · 312 games53% · 290 games
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSSS
46% · 186 games55% · 345 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritxn丶e
42% · 98 games52% · 220 games
Marspma
Mars
Batrider
BatriderWein
48% · 417 games53% · 163 games
GyrocopterDaze
Gyrocopter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightRein
52% · 193 games53% · 188 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct30:52
One Move 34%Natus Vincere Junior 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 50:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierxn丶e
52% · 253 games48% · 59 games
Pudgegotthejuice
Pudge
Monkey King
Monkey Kingv1olent-
53% · 97 games46% · 189 games
Bloodseekerpma
Bloodseeker
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
47% · 195 games51% · 208 games
Keeper of the LightNiku
Keeper of the Light
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
55% · 100 games44% · 130 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Techies
TechiesWein
56% · 385 games48% · 444 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 77%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2