BLAST Slam VII · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Spiritloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 61 game
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 55 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 54 games
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 45 games
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 41 game
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 36 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 40 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
Ringmaster
rue · 22 games
Tusk
rue · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Batridersignature
Collapse · 20 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
553 picks · 343 bans
Phoenix
474 picks · 564 bans
Rubick
447 picks · 235 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 356 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 512 bans
Puck
321 picks · 849 bans
Beastmaster
315 picks · 795 bans
Jakiro
310 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total52% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:39
Aurora Gaming 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 53:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyNightfall
KezYatoro
Queen of PainMikoto
HuskarLarl
LargoWs
OmniknightCollapse
LionMira
Hoodwinknot me
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Treant Protectorrue
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 52%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1