European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Daze · 32 games
Lionsignature
Riddys · 26 games
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
Pugna
Riddys · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
Level UP
Tinyoften banned
dEsire · 11 games
Luna
Focus · 10 games
Tusksignature
dEsire · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Bor@nija · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 6 games
Earthshaker
dEsire · 6 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Focus · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
463 picks · 203 bans
Tiny
420 picks · 576 bans
Batrider
402 picks · 747 bans
Centaur Warrunner
388 picks · 552 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 154 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 687 bans
Mars
338 picks · 552 bans
Gyrocopter
327 picks · 293 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total83% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:9
Natus Vincere Junior 70%Level UP 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 21:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorNiku
Dragon KnightBor@nija
Pudgegotthejuice
Faceless VoidCoblackk
Pangolierpma
LeshracJeezy
IoDaze
GrimstrokeStoic
LionRiddys
Game 2prediction correct24:8
Natus Vincere Junior 75%Level UP 25%
The model gave 75% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 16:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marcipma
LinaBor@nija
TimbersawNiku
Chaos KnightCoblackk
Lifestealergotthejuice
PhoenixStoic
IoDaze
HoodwinkJeezy
LionRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 83%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2