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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 25 games
28%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 15 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 14 games
21%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 12 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
50%

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 10 games
30%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 8 games
25%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Crystallize · 7 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
463 picks · 202 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 575 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 747 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
389 picks · 554 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 154 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 689 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 555 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
326 picks · 293 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Monte
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
SIBE Team 62%Monte 38%
The model gave 62% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 27:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckряф^^
55% · 216 games50% · 98 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
45% · 219 games47% · 267 games
PangolierMoonlight
Pangolier
Earthshaker
Earthshakersunset
57% · 110 games51% · 154 games
Faceless VoidCrystallize
Faceless Void
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSOhY
47% · 178 games49% · 113 games
MiranaEcNart
Mirana
48% · 91 game
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct36:20
SIBE Team 62%Monte 38%
The model gave 62% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 28:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
48% · 217 games52% · 214 games
PangolierMoonlight
Pangolier
Zeus
Zeusряф^^
44% · 120 games41% · 132 games
LunaCrystallize
Luna
Earthshaker
Earthshakersunset
61% · 112 games50% · 114 games
Dragon KnightInfernal
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSOhY
48% · 243 games55% · 79 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
54% · 153 games
Shadow DemonEcNart
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 68%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2